Category Archives: Johan Camargo

  • 0

Braves' Due Diligence on Josh Donaldson

(Previous profiles include Patrick Corbin, Bryce Harper, five free agent catchers, Manny Machado, Marwin Gonzalez, and Dallas Keuchel.)
Overview: It was not long ago that Josh Donaldson was finishing off his fifth consecutive 5-win season (in fWAR, at least). By “not long ago,” I’m referring to 2017. While limited to just 113 games that season, Donaldson slashed .270/.385/.559 with a .396 wOBA. Last season, though, didn’t go the way he planned. Sidelined for much of the year by shoulder inflammation and then calf issues, Donaldson played in just 52 games for the Blue Jays and, after a late-season deal, the Indians. While productive, he was not his normal self, posting a .345 wOBA while batting just .246. Hardly the way he wanted to hit free agency for the first time.
Predicting a Contract: Donaldson, who turns 33 on December 8, has a couple of options. He could sign for a year, hope to rebuild his reputation as a durable impact bat, and hit free agency once again for a three-year deal worth big bucks. Or he could take less money up front, but sign for security by getting the multi-year deal now. His salary for 2019 will likely differ based on which direction he takes.
Further, there is the time factor. If Donaldson inks a contract early in free agency, he gets security but risks losing out on money. If he signs late, he might not be able to get a long-term deal if that’s a desire much like Nelson Cruz in 2014 and Mike Moustakas last winter.
I believe teams will hedge their bets with Donaldson and the deals could get very creative. A team might offer him a big payday up front – say $20 million over one season – but might attach a condition that if he misses X amount of days, he is controlled for another season at a much smaller salary through a team option. For instance, if he were to miss 30 days, the team that signed him gets a $10 million option for 2020. The more time he misses, the less lucrative the option.
Conversely, he could go to the Moustakas route and sign for a smaller base salary, but a larger salary in 2020 as part of a mutual option. The Braves don’t give out player options, however.
Or, since deals with an opt-out are all the rage, perhaps Donaldson would sign an one-year deal with a few years tacked on at manageable rates for the Braves. Something along the lines of $20 million for 2019 and salaries of $15 million the following two years – salaries that could increase based on performance and health. For instance, if he played in 130 games, the option would be worth $18 million. If he played in 145 games, the option might increase to $22 million. Something to that effect.
Suffice it to say, Donaldson’s next contract could be boringly simple or quite complex. A lot depends on what Donaldson ultimately is looking for. Does he prioritize financial compensation, long-term security, or some combination of the two? For our purposes, let’s keep it pretty simple for the time being. One year, $21 million.
The Case For Signing Josh Donaldson: If healthy, Donaldson is an impact bat – the kind that is a difference maker for your lineup. He has a career .375 wOBA, which he out-produced in each of the three years before his injury-shortened 2018. To put that into perspective, Freddie Freeman has a career .374 wOBA. Donaldson is a gifted power hitter with a great eye.
Defensively, Donaldson worked tirelessly to improve at third base and remains a good fielder. While not the elite third baseman he was from 2013-15, the current Donaldson still compensates to some degree from a loss of range by having quick instincts and a strong, accurate arm.
And not for nothing, but Donaldson is a rare superstar that can be signed without relinquishing a draft choice. Because he was traded during the season, the Indians couldn’t extend a qualifying offer. And even if Donaldson is a one-year fill-in for the Braves, should the team keep him all season, they could give him a qualifying offer after the season to possibly recoup a draft choice should Donaldson play well.
One more thing – while I believe we often overvalue things like home/away records and especially records against right-hand or left-hand starters, the Braves did go 21-26 against southpaw starters in 2018. Donaldson has a career .967 OPS against lefties. I hear that’s good.
Finally, some might use this as a reason to not sign Donaldson, but I believe the presence of Johan Camargo is a good reason to sign Donaldson. I will keep hammering this home, but depth is a good thing. It’s part of the reason why the Dodgers had little trouble with the Braves in the NLDS. Ryan Flaherty was on the bench for the Braves. Brian Dozier and Matt Kemp were on the bench for the Dodgers. Depth makes a difference. Further, Camargo can help the Braves rest Donaldson, keeping him fresh while not sacrificing too much offense in the process.
If you’re worried about Camargo on the bench, if the Braves spot Donaldson once or twice a week – along with once a week for Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, that’ll give Camargo about three or four starts a week. Let’s just round to 15 starts a month. That’s 90 over a full season – a number that’s very conservative and assumes no DL stints on the infield or the likely shift of Donaldson to DH during interleague road games. You can even give Freddie Freeman a day off against a very tough lefthander by moving Donaldson across the field, where he has some limited experience.
The Case Against: Age. It starts there. Donaldson turns 33 next month. He probably won’t post another 7-win season according to fWAR. That means Atlanta might invest in a guy who could fall off the cliff into a steep decline rather than add the guy who was a yearly MVP candidate for half-of-a-decade. Further, we already know there is some decline to Donaldson’s game. I mentioned his declining range defensively, but Statcast also points to something else. In 2015-16, Donaldson was one of the top hitters in terms of exit velocity. Obviously, that’s a good thing. Since 2016, he’s lost 2 mph in exit velocity. This isn’t a death sentence, but similar to a pitcher with decreased fastball velocity, lower exit velocity could be a sign of declining bat speed.
To be fair, we should expect Donaldson’s bat speed to be a little less. Again, he’s no longer in his upper 20’s. And it should be noted that his EV saw improvement when he finally finished his rehab and joined his new Indians teammates over the final month. While that’s too small of a sample size to call it a trend, it does give us some hope that his decline will be at a more traditional gradual pace rather than the sharp one that saw Donaldson post a .325 wOBA in 2018 as a Blue Jay.
But if age doesn’t give you pause, perhaps 165 major league games in two years ought to. The Braves aren’t the Yankees or Dodgers. They can ill-afford to make a splashy free agent signing and watch him miss half of the season. Donaldson supporters would counter by pointing out that Donaldson played in 150+ games in each of the previous four seasons before 2017. But it’s worth considering because with increased age comes increase risk of injuries.
One last argument will go back to Camargo, but not in a positive light. Depth is great, but do the Braves really want to send a player, after a .346 wOBA and 3.3 fWAR, back into a reserve role? Further, adding Donaldson doesn’t address the hole in right field. Some look at Austin Riley as a possibility out there. I will need to see him play the position first before considering it. But either way, adding Donaldson is an attempt to improve what is already a strength. And while it should both succeed at that and improve a weakness (the bench), it does not address any of the top priorities like a new right fielder, a new catcher, and an improved bullpen.
My Two Cents: For all the possible negatives that go with signing Donaldson, the positives outweigh them in my mind. Even if he’s a bit older, Josh Donaldson can turn a good lineup into a great one with his offensive output. While his defense is likely to never be Gold Glove-worthy again, it’s still good enough with the right analytics. He’s a complete difference maker who will cost a fraction of other difference makers in terms of investment and length of contract.
Of course, the reasons that Donaldson won’t sniff the contracts Manny Machado and Bryce Harper receive will give teams pause. But I don’t think those reasons should disqualify Donaldson from your mind or the Braves’ for that matter. While it a small sample, he showed that when healthy, he can still be a good player when he hit well down the stretch for the Indians.
Donaldson is the best of both worlds. He brings the kind of power the Braves desperately want while avoiding the kind of long-term deal Alex Anthopoulos is hesitant to give out. The concerns are there, but the fit is almost too good.
But what do you think? Am I way off on what it will take to sign Donaldson? Is it not the perfect fit I believe it can be? Let me know below or on twitter


  • 0

Braves' Due Diligence on Manny Machado

(This is the fourth part of this series. I previously looked at Patrick Corbin, Bryce Harper, and five free agent catchers.)
Overview: Manny Machado began the season in Baltimore, looking to both rebound from an off year in 2017 and re-establish his value as one of the top free agents of the 2018-19 cycle. He did both of those things, though his own take on “Manny Being Manny” might cost him in free agency
Machado hit just .259/.310/.471 in 2017 with a .328 wOBA. After back-to-back 6 fWAR seasons – which is elite status – Machado fell to 2.6 fWAR. It was his worst season since an injury-shortened 2014. Many onlookers expected him to revert back to his former self in 2018 because it appeared that the main culprit for his struggles was a .265 BABIP. Provided he sustained his usual rates in both power and hard contact, 2018 would likely be an improved season.
And so it was. He hit .297/.367/.538 over the season with a .377 wOBA, a personal high for the slugger. He also tied his career high with 37 homers, swiped 14 bases after just nine the previous two seasons combined, and set a new high in walk percentage with 9.9%.
Two things followed Machado during the season – his pending trade to a contender as the Orioles struggled to compete and his move to shortstop. The trade came before the deadline in a move to Los Angeles to replaced Corey Seager. His numbers in L.A. weren’t quite as dominant as his Oriole days. That probably is of little surprise considering it’s much more difficult to hit in L.A. compared to Camden Yards. Nevertheless, after a .399 wOBA over 96 games with the O’s, he posted a .346 wOBA in 66 games with the Dodgers. Certainly good. Not as impressive, but solid.
His move to shortstop, on the other hand, looked much better after the trade to the data-driven Dodgers. Before the move, the former standout at third base was one of the game’s worst shortstops. His -18 defensive runs saved, or DRS, was the second most DRS by an AL shortstop this year and he spent the final two-plus months in Los Angeles.
Machado turned 26 on July 6th and is due for a big pay day. What kind of pay day? Let’s take a look.
Predicting a Contract: I’ve already done much of the legwork here as Machado’s case is incredibly similar to Bryce Harper. In that case, I suggested a nine-year, $337.5 million contract. Such a deal shatters the current total value record of $325 million and the average annual value of a contract, currently at $34.42 million a year. For Machado, the deal is even bigger because it creates a clear line between the top contract ever given to a shortstop – Alex Rodriguez’s $252 million after 2000.
I’m not sure what impact, if any, his recent actions and quotes will have on his free agency haul, but I think a minimal contract like I suggested is still the safe play here when predicting what Machado can earn on the market.
As with Harper, two things will likely be part of this deal, though. One is an opt-out. It’s almost an universal practice at this point to include an opt-out after a select amount of years in the deal. This gives the player both the financial security of a long-term deal and puts at ease any concerns he will have about being passed by lesser players in earnings.
The other thing is some sort of no-trade clause. Players want as much control of their future as they can reasonably have. Now, this is a position where the player and team can compromise down to a limited no-trade clause – i.e. the player can submit a list of a group of teams he cannot be traded to without his permission. Of course, players can choose to allow a trade to still go through. The problem here, and reaffirmed by Alex Anthopoulos yesterday, is that the Braves have a policy of no-trade clauses. They will honor a no-trade clause if they acquire a player with such a clause in a trade, but they do not hand them out.
The Case For Signing Manny Machado: It’s simple – Machado, like Harper, is a excellent hitter. While his down year in 2017 has neutered his stats over the last four seasons, Machado still is one of 28 players since 2015 to have at least a .360 wOBA. In terms of fWAR, Machado ranks ninth among position players during that time frame – better than Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, and Freddie Freeman.
But, you might argue, much of that fWAR total came from his excellent defensive metrics. To which, I would simply reply, “your point?” Manny Machado can be a plus for your team both in the field and in the batter’s box.
And then, there is the age thing. Machado has 175 homers before his 27th birthday. Baseball-Reference’s Play Index – a must-have for baseball nerds – classifies 2018 as Machado’s Age-25 season because that was his age on June 30th. The number of players with at least 175 homers through their Age-25 season is not long. Seventeen players in history accomplished the feat and it’s still impressive despite the fact that the number has been climbing (Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Andruw Jones, Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Miguel Cabrera have all joined the list since 2000). Not counting active players, only two of the players with at least 175 homers before their Age-26 season failed to reach 400 homers – Orlando Cepeda and Johnny Bench.
You might argue that the Braves already have Johan Camargo and don’t need Machado. However, as we learned when the Braves faced Machado’s Dodgers, depth is a good thing. Camargo is a solid player, no doubt, and he slashed .272/.349/.457 during 2018 with a .346 wOBA. He’s not, however, Machado’s equal. Further, having Camargo in a backup role could help the Braves infield stay fresher for a full season.
But what about Austin Riley? I like Riley a lot. We’ll be releasing our Top 50 prospects starting after the new year and Riley will surely be in the Top 10. But he’s also not Machado. In some ways, you can argue that’s a good thing. I’ll get to them shortly.
The Case Against: Before I touch on the bigger issues, there is legit criticism about the defense. He looked horrendous at shortstop before the trade. A better group around him and better defensive positioning helped when he was with the Dodgers, but he’s still a below-average defender because his range is so limited. Machado has been a bit uneven on his openness to playing third base for a team he signs with. Before the trade, he simply said, “I’m playing short,” but softened his position later – probably at the urge of his agent. According to Jon Heyman a bit more than a month ago, Machado would be willing to play third base for the right team.
Whether the Braves are the right team or not is a mystery. What isn’t a mystery is, like his teammate Yasmani Grandal, Machado is doing himself few favors heading into free agency. First there was the admission that hustling was just “not my cup of tea.” Now, I am split on this. On one hand, I’m okay with my superstars that I’m paying millions of dollars not busting their butt every play. I know we’re told in little league that even if we hit it on the ground, put our heads down, hustle, and run through the first base bag. But this is the MLB. Errors happen, but not nearly at the frequency that Bobby from down the street bobbles a simple grounder. I’d prefer to see the guy I’m paying $35 or so million not blow up his hamstring running his tail off on a play he’s thrown out easily.
That said, you just don’t say it. Simple as that. You don’t say “Me hustle? Never!” I suppose Manny’s mom never told him, “It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.” Machado’s admission is best explained by this GIF.

But it’s not really a joke. Machado is telling perspective teams that he’s just not going to try. He’s after his and his alone. And while that might win you a lot of games, it also could be detrimental to your team. To be fair, I have not seen any teammates with a bad word to say about Machado.
Like I said, I don’t mind Machado not hustling so much as I do the fact he said it. What I do mind is his hot-headed temper and inexplicable actions. On June 6, 2014, Machado took offense to being tagged out by Josh Donaldson. Two days later, Machado seemed to intentionally throw his bat at an Athletics pitcher or toward third base after an inside fastball. The ball was already by him before he threw the bat. These are just a few select events I could have pulled from.
But last night was another thing altogether. Machado seemed to intentionally kick the leg of Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar as he ran to first on a ground out. To be fair, Aguilar’s footwork was shoddy at first base. But Machado could have easily avoided Aguilar since he was looking down as he dragged his foot and struck Aguilar. It’s just the latest in Manny Machado resurrecting the old “Manny Being Manny” idea. However, the original Manny – Manny Ramirez – earned that description for quirky and odd moments. For Machado, it’s a series of classless plays.
My Two Cents: I’m not against replacing Camargo at third base, but I’d pass on Machado. While Bryce Harper has been handed a “clubhouse cancer” reputation that it doesn’t appear he’s earned, Machado’s actions show that he’s probably not the best person to put around a group of young and impressionable Braves. Too much of a price tag and too much of a headache.
Do you disagree? Let me know below.


Phản hồi gần đây

Chuyên mục